Israel and Turkey have initiated high-level technical discussions aimed at establishing a deconfliction mechanism in Syria, where both nations maintain active military operations. These talks come as Turkey explores potential military bases in areas like Palmyra—a move Israel has explicitly labeled a "red line"—heightening concerns about possible armed confrontation between the two regional powers.
Key Developments in Israel-Turkey Syrian Negotiations
The technical talks between Israeli and Turkish officials began this week in Azerbaijan, focusing on creating a communications channel to prevent military misunderstandings in Syria. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed that discussions are underway to establish deconfliction mechanisms similar to those Turkey already maintains with Russia and the United States in Syria Al Jazeera1.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office released a statement noting that both sides "agreed to continue the dialogue in order to preserve regional stability," while emphasizing Israel's security concerns Al Jazeera1.
The immediate trigger for these discussions appears to be Turkey's military expansion in Syria. Turkish military teams have reportedly inspected at least three air bases in Syria—including the strategic T-4 airbase and Palmyra airport in Homs province—where they could potentially deploy forces The National2.
Israel has conducted over 500 airstrikes in Syria since December and maintains troop deployments in the UN-patrolled buffer zone in the Golan Heights. The country's primary concern in Syria remains preventing Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah through southern Syria Times of Israel3.
Global Reactions to the Syria-Centered Tensions
The United States has taken a significant interest in mediating between the two allies. President Donald Trump has offered to facilitate discussions between Israel and Turkey on their competing interests in Syria Times of Israel4. According to reports from diplomatic sources, "President Trump made it clear in the last meeting with Netanyahu in Washington that while he's willing to help Israel with Turkey, Israel must make 'reasonable demands'" Times of Israel3.
Israeli officials have been unambiguous about their concerns. An Israeli political source stated that "any change in the deployment of foreign forces in Syria – and in particular the establishment of Turkish bases in the Palmyra area – is a red line and will be considered a breaking of the rules" Al Jazeera1. Netanyahu himself has declared that Turkish bases in Syria would represent a "danger to Israel" Al Jazeera1.
Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan has attempted to ease concerns, stating that "Turkey has no interest in fighting any country on Syrian soil" Times of Israel3. Turkish sources have indicated that "efforts will continue to establish this mechanism" for deconfliction Al Jazeera1.
These discussions occur against the backdrop of significantly strained Israel-Turkey relations following Israel's military campaign in Gaza, which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sharply criticized Jerusalem Post5.
Expert Insights on Middle East Power Dynamics
Security analysts view the current talks as a reflection of shifting power dynamics in the Middle East following years of Syrian civil war and the Gaza conflict.
Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, provides a crucial perspective: "Ultimately, when it comes to Syria, Turkey simply cares more about it than Israel does, and invests accordingly. Israel's interest in Syria is purely security-oriented. That gives Ankara the upper hand" Times of Israel3.
Regional security experts note that Turkey's influence in Syria has been steadily growing, with Ankara supporting the interim Syrian government and engaging in operations against ISIS. This expanded role represents a significant shift in the regional power balance, as Turkey appears determined to secure a long-term presence in its southern neighbor Al Jazeera1.
Some analysts believe Israel may ultimately need to accept Turkey's deeper involvement in Syria. According to reporting from the Jerusalem Post, "Israel, it seems, is willing to accept Turkish influence in Syria, but not at the expense of its own freedom of action in Syrian airspace" Jerusalem Post6.
Concerns about Turkey's broader regional ambitions have also surfaced. An Alawite citizen quoted in The Times of Israel expressed reservation: "This relationship with Turkey isn't good. If Syria stays under Turkish influence, it will lead to the spread of political Islam. I believe Erdogan has a vision to restore the Ottoman Empire and dominate the Middle East" Times of Israel3.
Future Implications for Regional Stability
The outcome of these talks will likely shape the future of Israel-Turkey relations and the broader geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. Several possible scenarios emerge:
If successful, the deconfliction mechanism could prevent inadvertent military confrontations while allowing both countries to pursue their distinct objectives in Syria Wall Street Journal7. This would represent a pragmatic accommodation despite underlying tensions in bilateral relations.
However, the fundamental disagreement over Turkey's expanding military presence could persist. Israel appears increasingly likely to accept Turkey's growing influence in Syria, albeit with clear boundaries regarding airspace access and specific geographical limits Jerusalem Post6.
Turkey's deeper strategic interests in Syria—including its support for the interim government and operations against ISIS—are unlikely to diminish Times of Israel3. This suggests continued potential for friction, even with a deconfliction mechanism in place.
The talks also highlight Turkey's evolving role in the region. As noted by security analysts, "Turkey's actions—ranging from backing a range of Syrian rebel groups and planning for Turkish airbases in Syria to pushing for a security pact—pose complications for Israel's limited security objectives" Times of Israel3.
The situation is further complicated by the involvement of other powers, including Russia and Iran, and the potential impact on various Syrian factions vying for control in the country's fractured political landscape.
As both nations navigate their competing interests in Syria, the fundamental question remains: Can Israel and Turkey establish effective rules of engagement despite their strategic differences, or will their regional ambitions inevitably lead to direct confrontation in an already volatile Middle East?
