Extreme Heat and Record Temperatures Fuel Dangerous Wildfires Across Upper Midwest
Record-breaking temperatures, dangerously low humidity, and gusty winds have created critical wildfire conditions across the Upper Midwest, where at least 9 million people are under red flag warnings as multiple fires burn out of control and force evacuations in Minnesota's forests.
Widespread Red Flag Warnings as Multiple Wildfires Rage
Nearly the entire state of Minnesota along with parts of Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Montana are currently under red flag warnings as an unseasonable heat wave pushes temperatures toward 100 degrees across the region abcnews.go.com1. The National Weather Service has placed most of the Upper Midwest and part of the Northern Plains on high alert as the combination of extreme temperatures and relative humidity levels at or below 20 percent has created ideal conditions for wildfires to ignite and spread rapidly nytimes.com2.
In Minnesota, 80 of the state's 87 counties are under the red flag warning according to the state's Department of Natural Resources, which warned on social media: "Fire danger is extreme across the state due to hot, dry, and windy conditions. This is a dangerous time for wildfires" nytimes.com2.
The Camphouse Fire in the Superior National Forest near Brimson, Minnesota—approximately 40 miles north of Duluth—has grown to more than 750 acres since igniting Sunday afternoon and remains completely uncontained as of Monday abcnews.go.com1. St. Louis County Sheriff Gordon Ramsey reported that at least 20 residents have been evacuated, with the fire having already destroyed several cabins. Fortunately, no injuries have been reported nytimes.com2.
Adding to the concern, a second wildfire has been reported burning in St. Louis County, according to local authorities nytimes.com2. Regional meteorologist Justin Liles identified the major active fires as the "Jenkins Creek and House Camp fires" and warned that both "are likely going to continue to spread through the evening" wdio.com3.
The fires burning in Minnesota are among approximately 20 active wildfires across the Upper Midwest and Northern Plains, according to tracking website fireweatheravalanche.org nytimes.com2.
Record-Breaking Heat Wave Intensifies Fire Danger
The Twin Cities reached 90 degrees on Sunday, breaking a record that had stood since 1900 when temperatures hit 88 degrees nytimes.com2. This extreme heat is part of a broader pattern affecting the region, with temperatures expected to climb even higher in some areas.
North Dakota is experiencing particularly intense heat, with temperatures in Bismarck forecast to reach the mid-90s on Monday, potentially breaking daily records. The northern portions of North Dakota and Minnesota face what meteorologists are calling a "major heat risk," with temperatures expected to be the hottest for May since 1987. Grand Forks, North Dakota, could see temperatures reach 97 degrees abcnews.go.com1.
The heat is forecast to extend southward by Tuesday, with Texas cities including Dallas, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio expected to exceed 100 degrees, potentially breaking daily temperature records throughout the week. These cities could approach their all-time May high temperature records of 104 degrees abcnews.go.com1.
Meteorological Causes and Forecasted Relief
The extreme conditions are being caused by what meteorologists describe as an "Omega Block high pressure system" that has kept low pressure systems bottled up to the west for approximately a week. This atmospheric blockage is expected to linger through Tuesday night, maintaining the sunny, warm, and dangerously dry conditions across the region northernnewsnow.com4.
According to the Storm Prediction Center, an area of "critical" wildfire risk—the second level of severity on a three-level scale—extends from northern Nebraska to northwestern Minnesota. Forecasters predict another day of low humidity, strong winds up to 30 miles per hour, and record-setting temperatures in the high 90s on Tuesday nytimes.com2.
Relief is on the horizon, however, with the blocking pattern expected to finally break down on Wednesday. "Changes to our weather will begin on Thursday. At this time, much colder temperatures along with much-needed rain return heading into the weekend," explained meteorologist Justin Liles wdio.com3.
The forecast calls for temperatures to drop significantly by the weekend, with highs only reaching the low to mid-40s across much of the affected region—a dramatic shift from the current near-100-degree readings. Rain chances will increase from Wednesday night through Saturday morning, with accumulated precipitation potentially reaching half an inch to a full inch northernnewsnow.com4.
Emergency Responses and Indigenous Communities Impacted
The critical fire conditions have prompted responses from various agencies and communities across the region. In North Dakota, the Turtle Mountain Band of Chippewa Indians reminded residents that the tribe had declared a fire emergency earlier this month and prohibited outdoor grilling. At the time of the emergency declaration, the tribe reported that 13 fires were burning on the reservation nytimes.com2.
For firefighters battling the Camphouse Fire in Superior National Forest—the largest national forest east of the Mississippi River—the extreme temperatures in the Duluth area, expected to reach the 80s on Monday, compound the already difficult task of containing the blaze abcnews.go.com1.
Liles noted that while winds are expected to die down overnight, giving emergency crews "the chance to catch up," conditions will deteriorate again by Tuesday afternoon as winds pick up and temperatures potentially break more records. "Any spot fire or random fire has the chance to spread quickly," he warned wdio.com3.
The Minnesota Interagency Fire Center continues to coordinate responses to the active fires, working with local sheriff's departments to manage evacuations and protect threatened properties nytimes.com2.
Long-term Implications for the Region
This early-season extreme heat and wildfire activity raises concerns about what the full summer may bring for the Upper Midwest. The current fires have already resulted in an Air Quality Alert that extends through Thursday for affected areas northernnewsnow.com4.
While the immediate forecast offers hope with cooler temperatures and precipitation by late week, the intensity of this May heat wave—breaking records that have stood for over a century—highlights broader questions about changing climate patterns in the region.
The combination of near-record temperatures in May with already dry conditions suggests the potential for an extended fire season across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, an area not traditionally associated with major wildfire activity compared to the western United States.
As firefighters continue their battle against the active blazes and residents follow evacuation orders and fire restrictions, the coming days will be critical in determining whether the forecast relief materializes as expected. If the promised rain arrives, it could provide a much-needed reprieve; if not, the region may face an escalating crisis as the summer approaches.
With climate scientists increasingly linking extreme heat events to global climate change, will this unusually early and intense fire season in America's heartland serve as a wake-up call about the expanding geographical reach of wildfire threats across the country?
