The United States and Yemen's Houthi rebels have reached a ceasefire agreement after a costly two-month bombing campaign, yet experts suggest the Iran-backed militants may have secured strategic advantages despite facing intense military pressure.
President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the US would halt its bombing campaign against the Houthis in exchange for the Yemeni rebel group ceasing attacks on American vessels in the Red Sea. The deal marks a significant shift in the conflict that has disrupted global shipping and cost the US more than $1 billion in military expenditures, but leaves many questions about its long-term effectiveness and who truly benefits from the arrangement.
Key Terms of the US-Houthi Ceasefire
The agreement, announced unexpectedly by President Trump, establishes that the US will immediately suspend airstrikes and other military operations against Houthi targets in Yemen. In exchange, the Houthis have pledged to stop targeting US ships traversing the Red Sea, a critical maritime route for global trade Reuters1.
However, the limited scope of this agreement has drawn scrutiny. A Houthi official clarified on Wednesday that the deal "does not cover close U.S. ally Israel," suggesting that attacks on shipping in professed solidarity with Palestinians might not come to a complete halt Reuters1.
This position aligns with what the Houthis have maintained since the beginning of US strikes: they would stop attacking US vessels if the bombing ended, while continuing their campaign against Israeli targets Foreign Affairs2.
The Billion-Dollar Operation That Failed to Achieve Strategic Victory
Operation Rough Rider, the Trump administration's military campaign against the Houthis launched on March 15, has proven extraordinarily expensive. According to US officials briefed on the costs, the Pentagon has expended roughly 2,000 bombs and missiles worth more than $775 million, including hundreds of 2,000-pound bombs (approximately $85,000 each), at least 75 Tomahawk missiles (around $1.9 million each), and at least 20 AGM 158 air-launched cruise missiles (about $1.5 million each) NBC News3.
Additional costs include seven downed drones, two lost fighter jets, and at least $10 million spent on moving Patriot missile defense systems to the region, bringing the total cost to over $1 billion – though one Defense Department official disputed these figures, suggesting the actual munitions cost might be closer to $400 million NBC News3.
Despite this massive expenditure and some tactical successes – including an 87% reduction in Houthi missile attacks and a 65% reduction in drone activities – the campaign failed to translate these tactical wins into a strategic advantage. The Houthis maintained both the capacity and will to continue attacks, particularly against Israeli targets Foreign Affairs2.
Humanitarian Impact and Shipping Relief
One immediate consequence of the ceasefire is potential relief for approximately 200 seafarers aboard more than 15 ships stranded for weeks off Yemen's port of Ras Isa. Maritime and labor union sources indicate these vessels can now offload cargoes and depart, according to a Houthi official who told Reuters that "ships should now be able to enter Ras Isa, discharge cargoes and depart without issues" Reuters1.
The International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF) reported that several crew members on ships in the vicinity of US air strikes were injured, and two vessels were prevented from sailing away by Houthis during the bombing campaign.
"The ITF is working urgently to support these crews, but they need more than words; they need safe passage home," ITF General Secretary Stephen Cotton said Reuters1.
Despite the ceasefire, many shipping companies remain hesitant to resume voyages through the Red Sea given the uncertainty over whether the agreement will hold, particularly as Israel continues to target Houthi positions in Yemen. "We do not send ships in until we are sure that the people on board are safe," Lasse Kristoffersen, CEO of shipping company Wallenius Wilhelmsen, told Reuters on Thursday. "We have no information at this time to suggest that" Reuters1.
Expert Analysis: Houthis as "Victors" of the Truce
Several experts suggest that the Houthis have emerged as the primary beneficiaries of this ceasefire, despite the significant damage inflicted by US operations. The Times of Israel reports that the rebels have emerged "bruised but defiant" from the US bombing campaign, "cementing their role as one of the Middle East's most powerful non-state actors" Times of Israel4.
Thomas Juneau of the University of Ottawa characterized the agreement as "at best a very unstable agreement," noting that "this allows President Trump to claim victory, but ultimately, it is a very limited win" and emphasizing that "the Houthis' ambitions in the Red Sea against Israel and in the region in general will not wind down" Times of Israel4.
Michael Shurkin from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) highlighted that the decentralized, guerrilla nature of the Houthis makes them highly resistant to conventional military campaigns like airstrikes, explaining why the costly US operation yielded limited strategic results Times of Israel4.
Future Implications for Regional Stability
The ceasefire is viewed by analysts as a temporary pause rather than a comprehensive solution to the complex dynamics in Yemen and the broader region. Experts suggest several potential outcomes:
Opportunity for Houthi Regrouping: The current pause presents a strategic opportunity for the Houthis to rearm and reposition, potentially developing their indigenous weapons manufacturing capabilities further. They have already demonstrated increasing sophistication, such as experimenting with hydrogen fuel cells to power their drones Times of Israel4.
Continued Regional Tensions: The agreement does not address Israel's concerns, and Israeli forces have already conducted airstrikes against Houthi-controlled ports and airports in Yemen following the announcement. This suggests continued military confrontation between Israel and the Houthis is likely Times of Israel4.
Shift in US Policy: The deal reflects a potential shift in US foreign policy under Trump, with Vice President JD Vance stating in an interview with Fox News that a potential war between regional powers would be "none of our business," and that while the US can "try to encourage these folks to de-escalate a little bit," it wouldn't "get involved in the middle of war that's fundamentally none of our business" Foreign Affairs2.
Maritime Security Concerns: Despite the ceasefire, threat levels for shipping remain high given the Houthis' confirmation that Israeli-related assets remain open to attack. Ships with no connection to Israel have been targeted in the past, creating uncertainty for global shipping companies considering a return to Red Sea routes Reuters1.
Foreign Affairs suggests that rather than persisting in costly military campaigns, future US policy should focus on coordinating closely with regional allies—particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE—as well as supporting UN-backed diplomatic efforts to pursue a more comprehensive political settlement in Yemen Foreign Affairs2.
A Fragile Peace in a Complex Conflict
As the dust settles on Operation Rough Rider and this new ceasefire takes effect, many questions remain about its durability and implications. The billion-dollar US campaign failed to deliver a decisive blow to the Houthis, who continue to demonstrate resilience and strategic capability despite the significant resources deployed against them.
The agreement may provide temporary relief for stranded seafarers and reduce immediate tensions, but the underlying regional dynamics remain volatile. Has this costly military campaign merely bought a temporary pause in hostilities, or will it lead to more comprehensive diplomatic efforts to address the complex web of conflicts in the region?
